Questions about Syria and potential for an ISIS resurgence loom for Trump (2025)

At a news conference this month, President-elect Donald Trump bragged, “We defeated ISIS.”

It has been a point of pride for him, and it is true. In the first year of Trump’s first term,U.S. forces, working with Syrian Kurdish allies,defeatedthe Islamic State’s self-proclaimed “caliphate” and liberatedits capital. But the fall of the Assad regime has left Syria at risk of coming apart under pressure from a variety of terrorist groups, local militias and Israeli airstrikes. And Syria’s interim leaders, while proclaiming moderate intentions, have rootsin Al Qaeda andanother terrorist group, Hayat al Sham (HTS). Thenightmare scenario for many experts is thatISIS could re-establish its stronghold in the fledgling state and export more terrorism to the West or inspire it, as it did the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans.

The situation means that, once he is in office,Trump willmost likelyhave to make some hard choices —insist on withdrawing all or some of the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, in line with his previous positions,or leave them in place to prevent an ISIS resurgence and a tarnishing of what he sees as his accomplishment in his first term. U.S. withdrawalcould easily re-create Syria as a base of operations for terrorist attacksinIsrael, the United States and Europe.

The United States has been relying on fighters from theSyrian Defense Force (SDF),an alliance led by Kurdsin northeast Syria,to guard thousands ofcapturedISISfighters and their familiesthere. At the height of the waragainst ISIS, Gen. Joseph Votel, a former commander of U.S. Central Command,told NBC Newsthat the SDF’s fighters were among the best he has ever led.

But the SDF’s commander in chief, Gen. MazloumAbdi,told The Guardian thismonththat ISIS is growing in strength after it seized weapons from the collapsedSyrianregime. Healsosaid the Kurdish forces are coming under increased pressure fromTurkishPresident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who views them, along withKurdish separatists based in Syriaknown as the PKK,as threatsto his regime.

Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken saidMonday in an interview with NBC News that the U.S. role in helping guide and shape what is happening in Syria is “essential.”

Blinken described the situation on the ground as “incredibly fragile,” warning that “what happens inside of Syria doesn’t stay inside of Syria,” with the potential for terrorism that goes well beyond its borders.

The United States has a stake in the “extraordinary opportunity that is now before the Syrian people to actually control their own lives and their own destinies,”he said. “That means, I believe, keeping some presence, but it also means being very engaged in all of the efforts to help support a Syrian-owned, Syrian-led transition to get the country to a better place.”

TheodoreKattouf,a career diplomat who was the U.S. ambassador to Syria under President George W. Bush,toldNBC Newsrecentlythat even if Trump were to continue bombing campaigns and targeted operations against the terrorist group, removing U.S. troops would leave the Kurdish coalition vulnerable and ultimately lead to an expanded footprint for ISIS.

“With those troops out of there, we’re putting a lot of U.S. interests at risk,”Kattoufsaid. “I don’t see[HTS]or other allied rebel forces able to take on that issue right now.”

The fear among Biden administration counterterrorism officialsis thata Trump withdrawal of U.S. forces would leave the Syrian Kurds guarding the ISIS prisoners vulnerable to attacks from other factions — or the looming presence of Turkey, just across the border.BothTrump in his first term and President Joe Bidenhave worked hard to restrain Erdoğan,whose country remainsa NATO ally, from attacking America’s Kurdish allies. Trump saidat his news conference last week thathe had asked Erdoğannot togoafter “certain people,” clearly referring to the Kurds. Trump added, “President Erdoğanis his friend of mine, he’s a guy I like, respect. I think he respects me also.”

Beyond serving as a base for operations and planning, any Syrian territory that falls to ISIS could help it project an image of power and resistance and inspire others around the world. The group has already beenexpanding its globalreach through social media, sponsoring attacks andinfluencing followers worldwide, including so-called lone wolves,through what anti-terrorism experts say is a surge of sophisticated online propaganda. CIA Director William Burnstold NPRlastweekthatthe agency is “quite concerned” about the rising threat posed by ISIS, particularly its “ability to inspire people.”And in July, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned the House Judiciary Committee that “the greatest terrorism threat to our homeland has been posed by lone actors or small cells of individuals who typically radicalize to violence online and use easily accessible weapons to attack soft targets.”

The U.S. intelligence communityand the FBI have been sounding those alarm bells for more than a year.A senior administration officialtoldNBC Newson Friday, “There is a heightened focus on ISIS,” pointing to the cancellation of three Taylor Swift Eras Tour shows in Vienna in August after warnings from U.S. intelligence of ISIS terrorist plots targeting the venues. And in March, gunmen from ISIS-K, an affiliate of ISIS based in Afghanistan, killed more than 130 people at the Crocus City Hall, a well-known concert venue outside Moscow, despite warnings from U.S. intelligence, according to U.S. officials.

“Syria could provide the group with the momentum that it’s long sought to kind of spill back onto the headlines, whether that’s ISIS K in Afghanistan, ISIS core, ISIS Central and Syria and parts of Iraq, and again, the homegrown violent extremists that live in the West that ISIS is attempting to push over the edge conduct the types of attack that we saw in New Orleans,” counterterrorismexpertCollin Clarkeof the Soufan Grouptold NBC Newsafter the New Orleans attack.

Clearly alarmed by the possibility of the collapsed state’s exporting terrorism to Europe,two weeks agothe foreign ministers of France and Germany, representing the European Union, traveled to Damascus to meet Syria’s interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa,who wasknown by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, before he disavowed his connections withHTS.

American boots?

“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” Trump said on X in the hours before the collapse of the Assad regime, adding, “The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!”

Trump’s pick for national security adviser,Rep. Mike Waltz,R-Fla.,echoed Trump’s reluctance for the United States to intervene in Syria but underscored the incoming administration’s commitment to combating ISIS. “We do not need American boots running around Syria in any way, shape or form, but we’re keeping an eye on those things, ISIS, Israel’s border, and kind of the broader dynamic with our Gulf allies,” Waltz said on a podcast late last month.

But experts question the ability to continue the fight against ISIS in Syria without a U.S.militarypresence.

During the transition, a senior Biden administration official said, the current administration has been briefing Trump’s national security team on the need for a continued U.S. military presence to prevent Russia, Turkey or Iran from gaining dominance. The outgoing Biden administration has itself been treading carefully, sending its top Middle East diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State BarbaraLeaf, to Damascus only after European counterparts had already visited and only afterpublic pressurefrom the mother of Austin Tice, the American journalist believed to be imprisoned in Syria,who saidthe United States should be more engaged.To even meet with the new interim leader, the State Department firsthad to liftthe$10million bountyithadputonhisheadwhen he ledHTS.

But now the critical question of whether the United States should play a role in preventing Syria from again harboring terrorists or permitting power plays from U.S. regional adversaries will be on Trump’s doorstep as he arrives at the White House. That and the challenge of combating the online propaganda that spreads ISIS’ terrorist philosophy far and wide.